As in the United States manipulated economic data

The overall level of investment attractiveness of the United States now not only in the hands of agents of the real economy and financial sector, but also under the state of the statistics.

With the unstable situation on world financial markets and the absence of significant fundamental ideas and medium-term trends, particularly important in the minds of investors acquires macroeconomic statistics as "inspiration" and "guidance" to "tired" of investors.

That positive statistics can cause the stock market euphoria and massive purchase of assets and so Panic sales are falling in the case of basic macroeconomic indicators in key countries.

This, of course, the main attention of investors focused on the situation in the world's largest economy, which generates about 25% of world GDP.

Figures published by ministries and departments of the United States, can "push" the world indices in any direction and to the financial statements of the United States ochilnykiv heard all market participants.

With our arsenal so powerful resource, able to set the overall tone on global markets, the U.S. leadership can manipulate the figures for the implementation of certain interests.

For the first time such suspicions emerged after the final data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008, which differed markedly from previous estimates, published in late January.

Thus, early in 2009, when stock markets continued to be in shock, U.S. Department of Commerce published the first data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008.

Market participants expect the fall rate by more than 5%, but perhaps the authorities decided to "regret" investors ozvuchyvshy modest reduction of 3.8%, which prevented another wave of sales at major venues.

Subsequently revised and then the final estimates of GDP showed the real extent of the reduction of the largest economies in the world - minus 6.3%. However, significantly affect the markets belated data deepest economic decline for fifty years have failed.

Another example - the latest report of the Ministry of Labor on state employment. In July, the first time since April 2008, the unemployment rate fell by 10 basis points to 9.4%, while the market expected growth to 9.7%.

The result - another positive for the stock sites and growing global interest in risky assets as a pretext - the U.S. job market oznachylasya stabilization.

Meanwhile, if you carefully analyze the published data, we can notice an interesting trend: the total number of people included in the category of "labor" for many months of steadily declining.

In July, the figure dropped by more than 600 thousand and a year "beyond the statistics" were 2 million people. Most of them - are hard-working people, but after numerous unsuccessful attempts to find work for some time they threw a "lesson" for which he was excluded from the calculations.

With this plain way of unemployment unexpectedly fell in July. If similar trends continue, then again in the coming months you will see very good data on the U.S. labor market.

However, it is unlikely to accuse officials of manipulating the figures, because they are derived from the approved methodology of calculation. On the other hand, changing the method can be any "required" value.

Private economists for many years to openly criticize the U.S. for incorrect calculations of basic macroeconomic indicators. In particular, the experts say about overvaluation pace of economic growth in previous years.

Thus, GDP growth that occurred in the years 2002-2007, could be artificial - the result of incorrect calculation of the index of inflation, which led to underestimation of the increase in real GDP.

In addition, the procedure calculating gross domestic product in the United States is extremely difficult and specific due to the fact that a significant part of it is service, whose value may not always be correctly calculated.

Single story - with the corporate statistics. Implied even in the case of fraud reporting corporation, and Enron auditor Arthur Andersen, which was accused of fraud. There svizhishyy example.

In April 2009 American Council of Financial Reporting Standards adopted amendments to accounting rules regarding the principle of mark-to-market - the revaluation of assets based on current market prices.

U.S. banks have been able to assess their problem assets - the same mortgage derivatives, which became one of the reasons for the current crisis - not the market price, which some assets just were not as per their pricing models.

Now the U.S. financial institutions may reduce the charges to bear losses in future periods. Therefore, the output went extremely positive statements for the first three months in 2009 and no less optimistic statistics for the second quarter.

Of course, it has provided significant growth in the financial markets. Meanwhile, following six months, banks have continued to build reserves for future losses, increasing them by 40% over the same period in 2008.

There is a regular question: why government statistics ornaments?

Firstly, the example of the GDP for the fourth quarter of 2008, it allows smooth negative data and protect investors from bad news.

Secondly, it allows to manipulate the market and its attitude towards risk. As a result, you can indirectly control the demand for treasury bonds, which is convenient in terms of approaching large placements or redeemed.

And most importantly - the overall level of investment attractiveness of the U.S. is not only in the hands of agents of the real economy and financial sector, but also under the state of the statistics.

In this regard, market participants need to very careful in the analysis and interpretation of macroeconomic data. Direct reasons not to trust official statistics still slightly, but the existing precedents give reason to wonder about the strength of "magic numbers" and their impact on investors' minds.

Related Posts by Categories