M. Zandi thinks that the economy will be able to re-create 6.9 million jobs and trillions of dollars in damages to compensate for no earlier than the middle of next decade. Unemployment, according to him, may never return to the minimum level of 4.4% fixed in 2007.
Even if the optimistic forecasts of analysts are correct, and the GDP growth next year will average 3.5% per quarter, it is not enough that has been pre-crisis level of $ 13.42 trillion, believes chief economist JPMorgan Chase & Co. Bruce Kasman.
In general, says B. Kasman, despite the fact that for almost a year has passed since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, GDP contracted in the second quarter to $ 12.89 trillion on an annualized basis, the situation remains very worrying. "
Unemployment may well remain the highest in the last 26 years the level of 9,7% over the course of 2010, which in turn will force the monetary authorities to keep interest rates at a level close to zero, and would not reduce the budget deficit below the record $ 1.6 trillion.
"Painting restoration is depressing," - said Kasman.
Share markets may take three to four years to recover to previous levels.
Many companies, especially retailers, need to adapt to the situation where consumers are buying less. Consumer spending in the GDP could reach only 65%, compared with the average for the past 10 years, the value of 70%, analysts believe Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Peter Berezin and Alex Kelston.
Negative on the timing of economic recovery is likely to affect the impossibility of further reducing the discount rate. Earlier declines played a key role in overcoming the crisis. So in 1982-83 years the economy has surpassed pre-crisis level for 6 months, which was made possible by reducing the rate from 15% to 8,2%.
Now the Federal Reserve has a margin of safety there. Interbank loans overnight are given at a rate ranging from 0% to 0.25%.
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