Wednesday, September 16, 2009

The level of confidence in the global economy remains at a record high level of 2 nd month in a row

Confidence in the global economy grew slightly in September and remained at the maximum level for 22 months due to signs of recovery after the worst recession since World War II, the data suggest a survey conducted by Bloomberg worldwide.

Index Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence rose this month to 58.5 points from 58.12 points in August. The minimum value of the index - 3.99 points - was recorded in October 2008.

The indicator value above 50 points indicates that the number of optimists outnumber pessimists.



"It now remains to see whether to confirm the actual growth of the economy increased confidence" - said the chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. New York, Christopher Rapco.

Confidence Index in the U.S. this month has not changed and remained at 47.3 points. In August the index jumped from 29.5 points to 47.3 points.

The most positive outlook on the global dynamics recorded in Latin America - the confidence index jumped to 65.5 points from 57.6 in August. A recession in Brazil, the largest economy of the region, ended in the second quarter due to higher domestic demand. The Brazilian Bovespa stock index has doubled since the beginning of the year. In Brazil, the confidence indicator for the month soared 80.6 points to 88.2 points.

"Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America will remain at the forefront of world economic growth, - the analyst believes Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore Tai Hoi. - Commodity prices rise and this will help lift the economy of these countries."

Index of confidence in the global economy in the countries of Western Europe rose from 41.1 points to 43.2 points.

However, in Spain recorded the sharpest deterioration in sentiment associated with the fact that unemployment in the country exceeded 20%: expectations fell to 14.5 points from 24.7 points.

Sentiment fell in Japan - fell to 48.8 points in September with 50 points in August. The overall indicator for the countries of Asia dropped from 74.2 points to 73.6 points.

Survey respondents less positive about the outlook for equity markets over the next six months, fearing that rapid growth is unlikely to prove sustainable. The value of shares on global stock markets grew by about $ 17.5 trillion with a minimum this year, recorded on March 9. Respondents in Japan and the U.S. expect the correction in the stock market in the UK and Brazil are counting on the continuation of the rally.

However, investors are given the most "bearish" for the past 18 months, forecasts for the dollar, said Bloomberg. As expected, the rate the world's reserve currency will decline over the next 6 months, the yield U.S. bonds rise.

The rate of depreciation of the dollar against other world currencies, according to the median estimate of experts, may increase during the next six months: the index fell to 30.8 points in September from 38.8 points in August.

From participating in the survey of investors and analysts only the representatives of Spain and Mexico believe that the dollar to the currencies of their countries will grow in the next six months.

The most optimistic assessment of its currency gave respondents from Brazil: the expectations index rose from 69.44 points in August to 70.83 points in September. Brazilian real against the dollar has risen in price by 28% since the beginning of the year.

The poll, conducted from 7 to 11 September, attended by more than 1,8 thousand respondents.

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