It is symbolic that in this age of information technology, this transition took the form of television pictures, in which the bank's employees left the building, bringing with them boxes uncomplicated office belongings. This picture was ominous: many viewers saw their future, even more about him guessing.
Perhaps we never actually learn why at a night meeting at the Fed decided to withdraw support to the bank Lehman Brothers. Nevertheless, it was after this decision, the bankruptcy of the financial institution has become inevitable, potential buyers after a detailed study of the balance of the bank hurried retreat, one of the main culprits of the financial crisis has been punished, and the domino effect in global financial markets - is running.
Bankruptcy seemed unshakable pillars, with the highest ratings, destroy the basis of the global financial system - trust. Within days, financial institutions and investment companies have reduced to the minimum limits on each other. As a result, financial resources has become completely inaccessible, that almost stifled business in general. Intensive use of borrowed capital when trading in the stock market, pushing down the world financial indices. Great sale of assets has begun, a great credit has stopped, which led to the transition from the financial sector crisis into real sector.
Economists talk about the beginning of the second Great Depression, filling airtime apocalyptic predictions and the expectation that soon the world will change beyond recognition. The fate of the U.S. and the U.S. currency seemed unenviable. Even more frightening were forecast in Ukraine, where the word "crisis" is associated not with the traditional cyclical economic phenomenon, and the crash of the early 90's.
A year passed. At this point in the global economic environment, there is consensus that the crisis reached the bottom of the (Ukrainian anecdote, which states that the market felt the bottom and started digging, we can only domestic "Spock"). The growth of stock indices continued the fifth month in a row, and although the fall in September and March have not yet played, and is unlikely to play in the near future, the growth rate the world's leading index - a record for the last decade.
Most of the indicators of business sentiment is improving. One of the last portions of the American Statistical simply is shining optimism. Consumer confidence index crossed a key mark of 50 points (and reached 54,1), July orders for durable goods rose by 4,9%, while sales of new homes jumped 9.6% the previous month.
A second wave of crisis, the correction of the world trading floors every time delays.
For such a fundamental change in the situation the world economy prompted no large-scale reforms and revision of the principles of financial institutions. The source of growth was Her Majesty Liquidity. It is on large-scale infusion of funds into the economy have been built with rescue authorities, primarily in the United States. The main conduit of liquidity made by the Fed: its balance sheet for the year rose from 800 billion to $ 2 trillion. U.S.
The Fed chief Ben Bernanke has fully lived up to his nickname given to him before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, -
The injection of funds held by lending through both central banks and international financial organizations. And above all - the International Monetary Fund. Function of the IMF was to prevent sovereign defaults, which could lead to another round of crisis and worsen the situation. The example of Ukraine in this case is indicative, as illustrated by the policy of the Fund on a global scale.
After the default of Iceland, which most struck by the banking system of Britain, even a small drop in the volume of the economy could trigger further collapse.
Thus, the Baltic states held hostage by the Scandinavian countries, Ukraine - Austria. As a result, the IMF was even more interested in providing resources, rather than the recipient country, which made him the most loyal in their demands.
The efforts of the Fund were not lost, and today we can see a significant increase in investor interest in emerging markets (and here Ukraine - an exception). The cost of debt of developing countries on the secondary market has returned to pre-crisis level, and in some cases exceeded it. The most great borrowers of these countries were able to successfully attract new funds from the market.
The turning point was the April summit of G-20, when the markets, and behind them and the economy began to return to the faith. According to the results were announced massive infusion: world leaders committed themselves to the end of 2010 to spend on the support of the world economy of about 5 trillion. Leaders of $ 20 largest economies in London for the first time presented the coordinated position of the authorities, which is a key issue for the market.
The entire course of the crisis in the global economy, especially in the U.S., has demonstrated how high importance to the credibility of the highest officials. In this case we can speak of a high triple: Barack Obama, Timothy Geithner, and Ben Bernanke. Last with high probability will continue to head the Federal Reserve System and will be re-elected to his post in January 2010. Bernanke is in favor of a position of most economists, who generally approve of his actions as head of the Federal Reserve, and his personal experience (it is known that most of his life he devoted to the study of the Great Depression, 1928-1933). It is this experience makes the U.S. government to abandon plans to curtail incentives.
In what scenario would further economic recovery, it is difficult to judge. Using a letter grade which has become a popular model, we can say that the optimism that prevails primarily in the stock market indicates a V-shaped recovery. But the lack of other options: the traditional
Precariousness of the situation is explained, first of all, the methods that were used to combat the crisis. This is the notorious liquidity. Active infusion of money into the system has resumed growth in major markets, but in many ways distorted signals, which gives the stock market. The result did not clarify the question remains - whether we are dealing with a liquidity cushion, or simply anesthesia? After all, in fact the authorities, primarily the U.S., just showered with money burning a fire crisis. But do not be superfluous to recall that the cause of the crisis was a bubble in real estate, including swollen hands and the previous head of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan, actively filling the market with cheap money.
Thus, the treatment is concerned the symptoms but not causes of the crisis. And the situation today as never contributes to the emergence of new bubbles, and some of the markets they arise - raw materials, gold, oil - is difficult to predict.
And, of course, do not forget about some of the manipulations that are quite legitimately possible to improve the picture. Revision of accounting rules allowed to reflect the assets on the balance sheet, based on their original cost, not market prices, which significantly reduced the banks declared losses. And the government supporting the growth of markets, originally published overly optimistic data (illustrative example - the U.S. GDP in the first quarter of 2009), which, of course, reviewed over time, but the news has often been played the market and has not made substantial adjustments.
Much of the development of the situation will depend on whether to keep the incentives for economic growth and how a successful strategy to curtail the rescue measures can offer the world's leaders. What could turn the economy for the active treatment of liquidity, well-known Japanese, who need no reminding of the lost decade of the 90's. Yes, and that talk about a sustainable economic recovery can not be as hard as leading economists and statisticians.
Following the August 2009 unemployment in the U.S. reached 9.7%, and the end of the year are expected to grow to 10%. But we all know that the labor market recovers with a lag of six months.
Rising unemployment continues to press the loan portfolios of banks, worsening the quality and increasing the need for financial institutions in the new capital. Some increase in production, marked in August, relates primarily to the depletion of stocks, and how long it will be difficult to say. The growth of the real estate market was made possible through a long period of low rates, which lowers the cost of a mortgage. The American consumer is not able to pull back to a world economy. He scared zakreditovan and inclined rather to accumulate savings, rather than spend them.
It is possible that could weaken the credit noose several years of high inflation (for the U.S. - it is 6% per year), but will be decided whether to pursue a policy of the Fed - still unknown.
A separate line should be noted the growth of U.S. public debt. For the program to stimulate the economy must pay. In 2009-2019 years the cumulative deficit of 9 trillion. dollars (1.58 trillion. in 2009 and 1.5 trillion. - in 2010), which promises to double the public debt of the U.S. government.
By the way, the problem of a large national debt is also solved by inflation. And, most likely, the inevitable victim of economic salvation would be the U.S. dollar. In this way the U.S. stood at the beginning of this year, when an economic strategy chosen methods of quantitative easing monetary policy, that is actually running the printing press. Faced with the dilemma of choosing between the collapse of the market of public debt and the dollar, the Fed and the White House decided to sacrifice the latter.
Do not assume that the victim entails a complete withdrawal of the dollar from the world arena - this is just the devaluation of U.S. currency, which now looks almost inevitable. While increasing the supply of U.S. debt is a demand, which in the deployment of new portions of treasury bills in two or three times higher than the supply.
Major holders of U.S. debt are held hostage to the Fed, because the market collapse Tresuaries - this is a sharp decline in the value of reserves. But the policy of diversification of reserves is already clearly visible, and more buyers - it is the speculators, whose presence allows us to solve the problem of funds in the short term, but can become a time bomb in the future.
But all the negative aspects, which still exist in the American economy could be blocked by one factor - psychological. After all, to ensure that the crisis ended, primary importance is one factor - the confidence of the majority of market participants, economic counterparts in that it ended. And then - a classic example of self-fulfilling prophecy.
And yet another classic result - no lessons learned. If at the beginning of the crisis it was assumed that it will contribute to a radical restructuring of the financial system, it is now clear that these hopes were Utopian. The proposals enunciated in the spring of plans for a supranational regulatory authorities were only plans. So no new system to control risks. Now looks increasingly likely scenario in which other initiatives aimed at tightening control over financial institutions, hedge funds and other participants of the stock market will remain only in the projects.
Raising capital requirements of banks - may limit management bonuses - ever. The most ardent supporters of the status quo are the United States and Britain, on whose territory they are located and the world's largest financial centers - New York and London.
Well, as the dollar remains the world's main currency, and the introduction of supranational currency looks even more utopian than tightening controls over the financial sector ...
The above-mentioned weakening of the dollar less than the total hit directly by the United States. On the one hand, the devaluation of the dollar - that devaluation and debt, domestic borrowing and external. On the other - it can significantly improve the trade balance, and this - a direct way to reduce the budget deficit.
It was a matter of respect for the consistent policy of China, which goes to the calculations in RMB with their trading partners. But the day when the yuan potesnit dollar on the world stage, yet refers to "the beautiful far.
Meanwhile, the main trend in the global currency market is the gradual weakening of the dollar. However, the dollar against the euro is still 1.45, which, of course, much higher than autumn values (1,2), but only close to the rate year and a half years ago (1,5). And any correction to the trading floors can again strengthen the U.S. currency.
Strengthening of the dollar in relation to the crisis in the U.S. - one of the most interesting paradoxes of the current crisis, showing how the world economy today is dependent on the policies of Washington. The deteriorating situation in the United States led to increased popularity of U.S. debt - the most reliable tool in the global financial system of coordinates. And the U.S. has reserved the role of the foundations of this system of coordinates. And the situation has not changed, even given the fact that the United States and Britain have suffered more than others due to the fact that their financial systems are much more advanced in the development of derivatives and structured products.
It is therefore focused on the signals from the U.S. economy, although the recovery seems to be the most time-consuming.
That such a year spent the global financial system. Or, perhaps, is worth talking about "survived". It is about periods of say - "the year of the two. And this year was really very interesting, but very few people in the financial world wants it to be repeated.
However, the cyclical development of the law states that all again, and again and again. Again, the prestige of the profession will increase investment banker. Instead of sub-prime market will come new financial instruments, risks that are understood by only a few of their developers. And the engine of the "new bubbles will remain the same kind of human greed, which are powerless against the supranational organs and systems of risk management.
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