Given the reality, the story of the world economy out of recession suggest unwarranted optimism. The only thing that is today - a nadzusyllya governments with which to stop the collapse of the world's largest economies.
Is it true that the States is better? Is it really the greatest economy the world has ceased to fall, and was revived? Is it true that Japan, Germany, France, Britain and Russia out of the recession? Or is this just the voice of propaganda, which seeks to give wishful thinking?
Some foreign and local experts recently have begun to predict imminent recovery of the global economy. On the other hand, even in the United States is the circle of experts who are very pessimistic assess the current state of the economy.
Obama began ...
August 1, President Obama appealed to the American people with an upbeat speech. He acknowledged that the GDP and unemployment were much higher than expected. However, in general, the president announced the start of economic recovery.
"We received a report on GDP. He showed that in the first months of this year's recession, which we encountered was much deeper than anyone thought. But I also realized that in recent months, the economy behaves relatively better than expected "- said Obama.
U.S. President paid tribute to all programs of economic recovery and used his administration. Thanks to them, said the president could stop falling.
The most effective program he called Recovery Act (Act renewal), under which must be spent 787 billion dollars. Of these 288 billion - on tax cuts and 499 billion - the investment in infrastructure (roads, bridges, canals), health care, energy and education.
"The law works, but our economy needs long-term investments in innovation to ensure long-term growth. We need to re-capture the spirit of innovation, which always ruhav America forward. This means - to regain most educated and highly skilled workforces in the world" - said Obama.
On the eve of his speech, National Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) has published the latest data on U.S. gross domestic product. In the second quarter of 2009 GDP fell by 1%. This figure was significantly lower than the -6.4% in the first quarter. This phenomenon is called positive Obama.
"The relatively small decline of real GDP impact: reducing the fall in business investment, increased government spending and reducing failure in the construction of new homes. At the same time decline pryskoryuvavsya reduced consumer spending and not so sharp as expected, lower import" - in Explanatory Note NBER.
Another enjoyable event for the United States - reducing the huge gap between exports and imports. He still holds, but for the year decreased by half. In May, the country vvozyla to 26 billion dollars more than it sold abroad. This is also a kind of positive. Another gap in 2008 exceeded 60 billion dollars.
He was supported by ...
Propaganda machine in the U.S. is better than anywhere in the world. Statement by President was supported by numerous analysts and officials. All their statements surprisingly similar to each other. They indirectly mentioned that announce the end of the crisis still early and the recovery will take time. However, several times more than the words given to positive.
For example, the 27 th president of Harvard University and White House economic adviser Larry Summers in the middle of August, said the foundation was laid for the resumption of growth.
He stressed that the crisis is far from completion, but already there are many signs that the U.S. economy is reviving. For more obvious indicators such as market shares for less obvious - such as credit spreads on forward markets and that they think about home prices, there is a noticeable steady return to normal, "- said Summers.
Simultaneously with the representatives of the Federal Reserve System. The U.S. central bank said that the U.S. economy shows signs of stabilizing after two years after the deepest crisis in decades. "The information that appeared since then, as the Committee on open market operations going in June, said that economic activity is stabilized. Conditions in financial markets have improved over the last week" - pointed to the Fed.
Central bankers have to understand that calculated at the end of the recession. Moreover, the first time since August 2008 they did not mention the decline of the economy. Although, of course, with the proviso that the economy remains fragile, because employers are still exempt employees and companies reduce investment.
Immediately, many experts have improved their forecasts of GDP growth. Consensus forecast showed that in the third quarter is expected to increase U.S. GDP by 2.4% in annualized terms. This predicted growth is only at 0.4%. Similarly, experts improved their expectations in the fourth quarter - from 1.7% to 2.2% growth.
Admittedly, that such optimism is the foundation. In August, one by one came out good macroeconomic indicators in the United States. Obama mentioned the greatest indicator - GDP, which zahalmuvav fall in the second quarter. In June 2009 the second consecutive month prices rose at home for one family. In calculating the annual cost of housing in 20 large cities fell by about 15.4%, but in June it had already increased by 1.4%.
In July, increased real incomes. Observed 0.4% increase - a great figure for the United States. A month earlier it was noted the fall of 1.2%. In general, looking at the charts from the last report, a group of economic advisers at the White House can be filled with optimism for the future States.
The fall in aggregate production in the U.S. stopped. GDP growth:
Efforts of government, was not a significant drop of income U.S. residents. Real incomes and their components:
Again increased U.S. corporate earnings:
Stopped falling prices - inflation facilitates the work of producers:
Not gone anywhere, but still more than twice reduced the deficit of foreign trade the United States:
With the exception of Treasuries (Treasury debt securities) since the beginning of the crisis, foreigners have everything fewer assets in the United States and Americans - are increasingly investing abroad:
All these figures - from the positive region. Based on similar schedules, the U.S. government tells the whole world about the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy.
And not just in the U.S.
In the new world of fashion for American optimism. In August, only lazy did not say that their economy emerged from recession and began to grow. In particular, spoke positively of Germany, France, Japan, Britain and even Russia.
In the middle of August, Japan reported that in April-June, the economy grew by 0.9%. Living in the country of the Rising Sun on the joys raportovalo that the longest since World War II the recession ended due to exports and government program incentives.
Joy could not spoil a timid warning analysts that the recovery will be long. The Japanese can understand, because it was the first increase after five quarters of decline. In annual terms, it stood at 3.7%. Previously, in October-December 2008 GDP fell by 3.5% in January-March 2009 - by 3.1%.
Invigorate the French made a statement. Germany also withdrew from the recession, noted the Federal Statistical Office of the country August 25. In the second quarter the economy expanded at 0.3% compared with the previous quarter.
It is framed as to achieve, because the four quarters of the economy fell. Admittedly, so far the success is shaky. In the last quarter of 2008 the economy of Germany stysnulasya on 7.1% and in the first quarter of 2009 - by 3.8%.
Britain also announced the release of a recession. In mid-August the country's Finance Minister Alistair Darling said that the resumption of economic growth the UK is expected to end in 2009. However, even boast a zero growth at the same time it failed. In the second quarter UK GDP fell to 0.8%.
"We need careful in such numbers, wait and see how they will be reviewed. If you look at the forecasts of independent experts that they have in the past few weeks and months, they all agree ... that the British economy will resume growth to the end this year and next - we will see a modest positive trend "- obnadiyav Darling.
And even Russia crisis hastened not hit in the face of mud. In late August the first vice-premier of Russia Igor Shuvalov said: "The matter of growth. This sounded laconic answer questions about the Reuters agency, whether published in Russian economy out of recession like the German. "We see (as far as sustainable growth - author).. Must be at least three months a growth prosposterihaty" - said Shuvalov.
Before that, in the second quarter, GDP in Russia fell 10.9% in second quarter 2008. Although, of course, to the first quarter of 2009 it grew by 7.5%.
A few days before the application Shuvalov, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach assured that the Russian economy is not yet showing signs of steady growth, and they appear unlikely to fall without drastic improvement of external conditions.
Probably the most honest in talking about the restoration were Chinese. Workshop of the world hardly felt the phenomenon called "crisis." This year, according to analysts Goldman Sachs, China's GDP can grow at 9.4%, although the official forecast of the Chinese government is 8%. Know that in the second quarter 2009 GDP growth accelerated to 7.9% after slowing to 6.1% in January-March.
The optimism extends to the future of China. According to preliminary data, in the first quarter 2010 GDP growth may exceed 10%.
In late August the heads of all central banks gathered at the annual conference to speak on the subject, retreating crisis. Before the meeting they razduli optimism to the extent of the planet.
In early August the European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet said - the world economy is no longer in free fall, although still declining. "We believe the period of free fall, but still seeing reductions (economic activity, cars.), And should beware of excessive optimism," - he said.
After half a month he began pidspivuvaty Fed. "After the sharp drop last year, economic activity begins to flatten as if, in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth soon seen as good. Although we were able to avoid worse in the future we have more problems" - said Chairman August 21 American central bank, Ben Bernanke.
Traditionally, the media did not notice warning the Fed that a "recovery, apparently, will initially slow, and unemployment will only gradually retreat from the highs.
Naturally, these cheerful expression confirmed the International Monetary Fund. According to IMF economist Olivier Blanchard, the restoration of the world economy has already begun.
But at what price?
In all these cheerful statements is one drawback. They speak only of phenomena, and reveal, through whose efforts stopped the crisis.
And almost all the experts called a major reason that could reverse all the achievements - the banks will not lend. Banks are very wary of the potential borrowers trying to avoid repeating mistakes made in the years of cheap credit.
As a result, they limited the bulk of the loans and increased their price to strengthen their balance sheets. All this is happening against the backdrop of record low interest rates.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet acknowledged that the ECB's action is taken since the escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008, prevented a serious accident.
"For the sake of fairness it should be noted that there was a serious economic decline, consequently, the demand for loans fell ... but from our point of view, obstacles still exist for lending, so our message to the banks is that they need to perform their required ' Relations ", - said Trichet.
German authorities are concerned that next year's loan conditions may worsen. Such a scenario could barely begun slow recovery of the largest European economy.
In the first half of August the British central bank has expanded the program increased the money supply in the economy at 50 billion pounds to 175 billion. But he said that was forced to do so because the economy was not enough credits.
According to official figures, for this reason in the second quarter more than 5 thousand British companies are bankrupt. It is almost 40% more than in the second quarter of 2008.
In Japan, experts fear that the new rate of recovery may spovilnytysya, simultaneously with the completion of state incentives. In particular, the state vytratylasya to stimulate consumption, which gives 60% of GDP.
The Japanese received from the budget-time payments and subsidies for the purchase of energy-saving cars and home appliances. Funny, but government spending increased by only 8.1%, to consumer spending rose by 0.8%. Such a price "out of Japan out of recession.
A little to the recovery of Japan added neighboring China, where the government spent 585 billion dollars to stimulate demand, GDP growth accelerating from 6.1% to 7.9%.
"Positive data provided stimulating activities in Japan and abroad, so the Japanese economy is far from self-growth. The level of growth for the July-September, will probably be the same as in April-June, then growth is expected to decelerate as as the impact of government incentives expire ", - considers Kiohei Morita of Barclays Capital.
Even growing China holds anti-crisis policy. Huge economy threaten three things - falling foreign demand for Chinese goods, reducing investment in China and the collapse of credit.
Specifically, in July, the volume of direct foreign investment in China dropped the tenth consecutive month to 5.36 billion dollars, lower than the same period in 2008 to 35.7%. Global companies against the backdrop of the crisis froze expansion plans. Back in July, banks have issued loans to four times less than published in the first half.
In late August, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao pledged that the government will maintain a stable level of access to credit and liquidity to help the economy.
"We need to clearly understand the basis for restoring unstable, fragile and unbalanced. Saving a stable and fairly high economic growth remains our primary task. Effect of some short-term measures will gradually disappear, however, to see the results of medium-and long-term measures need to time, and in economic transactions is a lot of new difficulties and problems "- said the Chinese leader.
Also in late August for the first time talking about that in 2010 monetary policy in China will continue to be soft and stimulating. This requires that GDP growth exceeded 10% in the first quarter of next year.
Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Andrei Klepach admits - until the economy shows signs of sustainable growth. And it is unlikely they will fall without a dramatic improvement of external conditions. This is despite the fact that the July decline in the industry at 10.8% was naypomirnishymy in December 2008 as against June even increased by 4.7%.
"
While the strong growth not sustainable. In the autumn we did not expect at the expense of internal resources. While we hope that the fall of deterioration will not" - said Klepach.
Given this reality, the story of the world economy out of recession suggest unwarranted optimism. The only thing that is today - a nadzusyllya governments with which to stop the collapse of the world's largest economies.
Difficulty stabilizuvavshy situation, they are now trying to promote a propaganda machine. The aim over the holiday - to convince the business to grow, and banks - to lend. Otherwise, everything will be in vain. Budgets are not bottomless.
All the major economies were falling. The table shows data from falling industrial production and inflation:
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